The Carnival Guy

I've written a fair number of case studies over the years. Although I do my very best to make them perfect when first published, they sometimes have errors or omissions or little glitches that cause difficulty for users. Thankfully people alert me to the defects so I can correct them. Over time then, the cases become "tried and true."

Still, some people argue about a "tried and true" case. That it doesn't mean what it says. That my conclusions at the end of the case are wrong. Or there's some other difficulty. Obviously, if it's a valid error, I can make a further correction; but with a "tried and true" case that would be rare. In other instances, I can usually show the critic the portion of the case they are misreading or overlooking, or I can present the underlying logic we are working with and how certain aspects of the case have been structured to focus on the issue at hand rather than allowing stretched logic and off-the-wall assumptions to enter the case discussion. The vast majority of people understand my approach, but sometimes a person will argue a point to death. That's when I have to tell them the story of the carnival guy.

It's possible to rig a carnival game to get a desired outcome, just as it is possible to write a case in such a way as to lead the discussion to the desired outcome (which may be one solid conclusion or a range of opinions). For instance, I once heard of a carnival game where one had to roll balls down a ramp into numbered chutes at the end. If the numbers added up to a certain value, I think it was "21," you won a prize. My understanding was that a game operator could construct the game in such a way that it was impossible to hit the required score. Yet people were winning prizes. How could that be? The game operator simply awarded prizes at random to stimulate interest in the game and to manage the outflow of prizes against the income from contestants.

"Wait a minute," you might be thinking. "Wouldn't we know we didn't roll '21'?" No you wouldn't if the game operator grabbed the balls quickly and shouted "Here goes another winner!" Besides, if you thought you didn't win the prize and the operator thought you did, would you really argue about it?

The concept I'm talking about here was stated so well by one carnival game operator. He said "It's my game. It's my prizes. It's my rules. It's my trailer. Do you really think you're going to win?"

In a similar manner, I always smile when someone tells me "how they beat the auto dealer when negotiating to buy a car." I just say something like "good for you." I don't have the heart to tell them they don't even understand the game much less how its really played.

About me: Dan Pelley's career experiences range from the shipping room to the boardroom and the college classroom. He has worked in companies as diverse as metal stamping, foundries, pharmaceuticals, computers and electronic components, hospitals, nursing homes, motor carriers, distribution, retailers, social services, government, quasi-government agencies, a major art museum and an airline. He shares his experiences through programs and seminars for companies in New England and through this blog.

Copyright © 2009 Daniel W. Pelley
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